Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 124,848
2 South Dakota 117,779
3 Utah 98,197
4 Rhode Island 96,742
5 Wisconsin 95,839
6 Tennessee 95,702
7 Iowa 95,453
8 Nebraska 92,706
9 Arizona 88,433
10 Kansas 87,597
11 Arkansas 86,824
12 Oklahoma 86,269
13 Indiana 85,729
14 Idaho 85,369
15 Alabama 83,822
16 Wyoming 83,435
17 Illinois 82,765
18 Nevada 82,481
19 Montana 82,111
20 Mississippi 81,951
21 Minnesota 78,094
22 Louisiana 76,543
23 New Mexico 75,885
24 Missouri 74,856
25 California 72,318
26 Georgia 71,391
27 South Carolina 70,964
28 Kentucky 70,880
29 Florida 70,652
30 Texas 70,469
31 Alaska 69,067
32 Delaware 68,982
33 Ohio 68,408
34 New Jersey 67,846
35 Massachusetts 65,063
36 Colorado 64,037
37 Connecticut 61,867
38 North Carolina 61,357
39 New York 60,632
40 Pennsylvania 58,369
41 West Virginia 58,249
42 Michigan 57,239
43 Maryland 52,112
44 Virginia 48,332
45 District of Columbia 46,192
46 New Hampshire 39,806
47 Washington 37,517
48 Puerto Rico 37,027
49 Oregon 30,610
50 Maine 23,173
51 Hawaii 16,712
52 Vermont 15,013

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,532
2 Connecticut 1,363
3 Arizona 1,151
4 Kansas 1,106
5 California 1,079
6 Utah 916
7 Texas 867
8 Oklahoma 842
9 Wyoming 839
10 Georgia 812
11 Arkansas 767
12 Massachusetts 757
13 New York 748
14 Kentucky 734
15 South Carolina 702
16 New Jersey 668
17 Delaware 650
18 Louisiana 645
19 Ohio 643
20 North Carolina 636
21 Florida 627
22 New Hampshire 619
23 Alabama 618
24 Tennessee 607
25 West Virginia 591
26 Nevada 573
27 Pennsylvania 566
28 Mississippi 539
29 Nebraska 539
30 Virginia 534
31 Idaho 525
32 Indiana 519
33 Iowa 473
34 New Mexico 470
35 Missouri 463
36 Illinois 460
37 Maine 459
38 Maryland 452
39 Montana 447
40 Wisconsin 444
41 Washington 409
42 District of Columbia 382
43 Michigan 372
44 Colorado 333
45 South Dakota 330
46 Oregon 270
47 Alaska 269
48 Minnesota 223
49 Vermont 214
50 North Dakota 182
51 Puerto Rico 158
52 Hawaii 85

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,270
2 New York 2,043
3 Massachusetts 1,938
4 Rhode Island 1,875
5 Connecticut 1,833
6 South Dakota 1,813
7 North Dakota 1,789
8 Mississippi 1,785
9 Louisiana 1,725
10 Illinois 1,548
11 Arizona 1,468
12 Pennsylvania 1,441
13 Michigan 1,434
14 Arkansas 1,387
15 Indiana 1,361
16 Iowa 1,341
17 New Mexico 1,339
18 Tennessee 1,181
19 District of Columbia 1,177
20 Alabama 1,174
21 Nevada 1,167
22 Kansas 1,151
23 South Carolina 1,148
24 Florida 1,089
25 Texas 1,082
26 Georgia 1,077
27 Missouri 1,065
28 Maryland 1,059
29 Minnesota 1,035
30 Delaware 1,020
31 Montana 1,000
32 Wisconsin 975
33 Nebraska 960
34 West Virginia 932
35 Colorado 929
36 Wyoming 901
37 Idaho 881
38 Ohio 845
39 California 800
40 Kentucky 744
41 North Carolina 743
42 Oklahoma 719
43 New Hampshire 650
44 Virginia 650
45 Puerto Rico 519
46 Washington 513
47 Utah 451
48 Oregon 406
49 Maine 337
50 Alaska 296
51 Vermont 253
52 Hawaii 218

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 28
2 Arizona 25
3 Kansas 23
4 Rhode Island 22
5 Connecticut 19
6 Wyoming 19
7 Pennsylvania 17
8 Tennessee 17
9 Mississippi 16
10 West Virginia 16
11 Arkansas 15
12 California 13
13 Nevada 13
14 Missouri 12
15 Georgia 10
16 Louisiana 10
17 Massachusetts 10
18 New Jersey 10
19 Iowa 9
20 Nebraska 9
21 New Mexico 9
22 New York 9
23 Texas 9
24 Illinois 8
25 Indiana 8
26 Oregon 8
27 Delaware 7
28 Florida 7
29 Idaho 7
30 Kentucky 7
31 Maryland 7
32 Ohio 7
33 Oklahoma 7
34 South Dakota 7
35 District of Columbia 6
36 Michigan 6
37 South Carolina 6
38 Virginia 6
39 Wisconsin 6
40 Maine 5
41 North Carolina 5
42 Utah 5
43 Washington 5
44 Colorado 4
45 Montana 4
46 Minnesota 3
47 New Hampshire 3
48 Puerto Rico 3
49 North Dakota 1
50 Vermont 1
51 Alaska 0
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 278,502 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 229,633 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 223,741 3 99
Norton Kansas 222,347 4 99
Bent Colorado 222,342 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 111,506 261 91
Richland South Carolina 72,073 1612 48
Orange California 66,546 1894 39
York South Carolina 65,233 1950 37
Pierce Washington 34,644 2863 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,330 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 931 1846 41
Richland South Carolina 861 1951 37
York South Carolina 701 2206 29
Orange California 686 2230 29
Pierce Washington 448 2601 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons